Imagine your home becoming unsellable due to repeated floods. This grim reality is increasingly faced by many in Britain. Take the story of Christine, a 70-year-old great-grandmother, who humorously jokes about needing a new carpet after the next flood. But the reality is far from funny. Her home, like those of her neighbors, has been severely damaged by multiple floods, rendering it uninhabitable and unsellable. In 2020, the brook behind their homes burst its banks, causing extensive water damage. The aftermath included ripped-out floorboards, skirting boards, kitchen cupboards, and entire bathrooms. Doors were removed from their hinges and thrown into skips, and even fridges, washing machines, and furniture had to be discarded. Fortunately, their insurers covered the refurbishment and replacement of furniture. The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood management, conducted Property Flood Resilience assessments. However, the most effective solution, installing embankments and walls to prevent water from topping the brook, was deemed too costly and was not implemented. Instead, cheaper flood-proofing measures were offered, including flood doors, barriers, and pumps to remove water. Despite these efforts, the houses flooded again in 2023, revealing a critical oversight: the assessments failed to account for the homes' construction on platforms, where water seeped through the ground. This highlighted the limitations of the flood-proofing measures. As heavy rain began to pour, the women's vigilance intensified, as they anticipated the next flood warning. They closely monitored the government website, staying up all night, messaging each other, and checking the brook's water levels. Jackie, in particular, had a meticulous plan for stacking furniture and using plastic raisers to save as much as possible. The EA's approach, however, focused on making the homes 'flood-resilient' rather than 'flood-proof,' acknowledging that flooding is inevitable but aiming to minimize damage. Residents believe that the flooding intensified after nearby housing developments were built, with an additional leisure development on the horizon. The extra discharge and surface runoff now drain into the brook, increasing the risk of flooding. According to the lead local flood authority, the runoff into the brook will be approximately 44% higher once all the developments in the area are completed. The unique shape of the brook exacerbates the problem, creating a second river that flows directly into people's homes when overwhelmed. Planning rules are supposed to prevent new building developments from increasing flood risks, but a loophole exists. Developments are assessed individually and often in phases, which can lead to disastrous consequences when the cumulative impact is considered. Every new building project adds more runoff and builds on land that acts as natural flood protection, unlike soil. The repeated risk of flooding has made Christine, Jackie, and Rhona's properties unsellable. Homeowners are required to disclose any flooding in the previous five years to buyers, which has significantly impacted home sales. Jackie, for instance, is considering moving closer to her soon-to-be-born grandchild but may have to significantly lower the price and use her pension money to facilitate the move. This trend is supported by a study from Bayes Business School, which suggests that homes at risk of flooding are sold for 8-32% lower than average compared to non-affected properties. Even when sellers find buyers, some lenders, like Nationwide, may no longer provide mortgages due to the high flood risk. The government has stepped in to cover the flood-risk element of home insurance until 2039, preventing a spike in premiums. However, the end date of this scheme and its exclusion of houses built after 2009 have led mortgage lenders to avoid funding homes that may lose value and be sold at a loss if repossession occurs during a mortgage default. This dynamic could worsen as flood risk encroaches on more UK housing stock. Labour's housing policy, which involves building more homes on green belt land, may exacerbate the situation by reducing natural flood defenses, increasing runoff, and elevating flood risk for existing homes. Guardian analysis predicts that over 100,000 new homes could be built in the highest-risk flood zones in England. Simultaneously, extreme weather events are on the rise due to climate breakdown, with 6.3 million properties, residential homes, and businesses in areas at risk of flooding, expected to rise to 8 million by 2050. These factors collectively pose a potential risk to the financial sector. As long as the government covers flood risk, the Bank of England sees little threat to financial stability. However, after the current scheme ends, the outlook may change, with negative equity and mortgage defaults leading to reduced collateral and capital for banks. Ultimately, the fate of Christine, Jackie, and Rhona's homes hangs in the balance, at the mercy of the weather forecast and the decisions politicians make in 2039.
